Mortgage delinquencies expected to rise, and then fall in 2012

National mortgage loan delinquencies – the ratio of borrowers 60 or more days past due – are expected to decline to approximately 5 percent by the end of 2012 from just under 6 percent at the end of 2011, according to TransUnion’s annual forecast.
After six consecutive quarterly declines between Q4 2009 and Q2 2011, 60-day mortgage delinquencies are expected to rise through Q1 2012, peaking at 6.02 percent. TransUnion forecasts mortgage delinquencies, a statistic generally considered a precursor to foreclosure, to decline for the last three quarters of 2012.
The expected mortgage delinquency decline in 2012 would follow recent yearly trends, including an expected 7 percent decrease by the end of this year and a 7 percent reduction in 2010. This is in contrast to more than 50 percent year-over-year increases between 2006 and 2009.